Bayesian Reasoning
A Grammar of Science?
From medicine and psychology to physics and computer science, researchers leverage Bayesian methods to guide experimental design, interpret results, and refine theories.
Bayesian reasoning can be viewed as the natural way to navigate a world where knowledge is rarely complete and certainty is seldom guaranteed. Whereas Aristotelian logic offers binary truths– statements are either true or false – Bayesian methods place these truths on a continuum, allowing beliefs to be continuously updated as fresh evidence comes to light. This approach to plausible reasoning can be seen as an elegant extension of classical logic under incomplete information.
As we have just passed the 250th anniversary of Laplace's seminal work, it is clear that the legacy of Bayesian reasoning extends far beyond the confines of mathematics and statistics. From scientific research to artificial intelligence, and from human cognition to everyday decision-making, the insights of Laplace and Bayes continue to shape our understanding of the world and our place within it. By embracing the principles of Bayesian reasoning, we can harness the power of probabilistic inference to navigate a world that is all, but certain.
Sprecher
Sprecher des CAS-Schwerpunktes „Bayesian Methods in Science”, CAS Young Center
Physik
Sprecher des CAS-Schwerpunktes „Bayesian Methods in Science”, CAS Young Center
Philosophy of Science
Arbeitsgruppe
- Prof. Stephan Hartmann (Philosophy of Science, LMU)
- Dr. Borut Trpin (Philosophy of Science, LMU)
- Prof. Matthias Feurer (Statistics, LMU)
- Dr. Sabine Hoffmann (Statistics, LMU, TBC)
- Prof. Volker Schmid (Data Science / Bio Imaging, LMU)
- Dr. Florian Pargent (Psychology, LMU)
- Prof. Felix Schönbrodt (Psychology, LMU)
- Prof. Wiktor Mlynarski (Biology, LMU)
- Dr. Chiara Gianoli (Medical Physics, LMU)
- Dr. Oliver Friedrich (Physics, LMU)
- Prof. Daniel Gruen (Physics, LMU)
- Prof. Jochen Weller (Physics, LMU)
Advisory Board
- Prof. Thomas Augustin (Statistics, LMU)
- Prof. Bernd Bischl (Statistics, LMU)
- Prof. Ophelia Deroy (Philosophy, LMU)
- Dr. Torsten Enßlin (MPI, Physics)
- Dr. Lisa Fenk (MPI, Biological Intelligence)
- Prof. Katia Parodi (Medical Physics, LMU)
Doktoranden
- Leon Assaad (Philosophy of Science, LMU)
- Lilian Von Bressensdorf (Philosophy of Science, LMU)
- Raphael Fuchs (Philosophy of Science, LMU)
- Gaurav Narkhede (Physics, LMU)
Visiting Fellows
Rijksuniversiteit Groningen
Theoretische Philosophie
Veranstaltungen
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20 FebBayesian Methods in PracticeWorkshop organized by Dr. Andreas Döpp (CAS Young Center/LMU).
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19 MaiHow to Choose a Good Prior. Advantages and Pitfalls of Working with Bayesian Methods
Workshop organized by Dr. Andreas Döpp and Dr. Tom Sterkenburg (CAS Young Center/LMU).
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26 JunBayesian Insights on Polarization and Disagreement
Prof. Leah Henderson, Ph.D. (CAS Fellow/Groningen) | Moderation: Dr. Tom Sterkenburg (CAS Young Center/LMU)
